On his retirement in 2040, veteran transport journalist GEORGE PANGLOSS looks back on the seismic changes on the railways and complementary modes of transport since the dark days of the early 2020s…
Who, in 2022, could have imagined that 73% of Britain’s railway network would have been wired by 2035… that container trains for Plymouth and South Devon Freeport would be running via Okehampton and Tavistock… or that stations had regained their 19th century position as the epicentre of communities?
Looking back, no one in 2022 could have anticipated the accelerating pace of change on our railways and transport generally, following the environmental devastation of the mid-2020s.
The huge scale of global heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, dust storms, floods and smogs finally prompted most governments to translate climate talk into the Draconian action the situation demanded. And not before time.
Governments finally recognised that in the drive to reach net zero by 2050, winning slowly was the same as losing, and in Britain the only way to make the changes needed was to form a national government.
Party politics were effectively suspended, and an effort was made to adopt a more collegiate style of government that put country and competence before sectional interests.
Huw Merriman, one of the few rail ministers who really wanted the job, became Transport Secretary and created what was arguably the first coherent transport policy for England since the 1945-51 government (Wales and Scotland had devised integrated policies by the early 2020s).
Realising, in Merriman’s words, that “rail is one of the best returns on investment that taxpayers can ever make”, government placed the railways centre stage as the backbone of transport.
Their value was enhanced by recognition that greener transport and rail investment provided solutions to other problems, whereas roads created more problems than they solved. Road construction was limited to building a few bypasses, providing Dutch-levels of cycling infrastructure, and putting an end to potholes.
The siloed thinking of ministries was replaced by mutually supporting policies to effect change. All government decisions were viewed through the prism of climate change to provide joined-up thinking.
A fundamental part of a coherent transport policy of mutually reinforcing measures was a revised hierarchy for investment and taxation, determined by their contribution to carbon reduction. Road pricing replaced fuel duty, with charges that reflected the local availability of greener modes (to avoid penalising areas that lacked realistic alternatives to an electric car).
Public acceptance of the need for radical change had been steadily developing, owing to recognition of its positive aspects as well as anxiety over constant weather disasters and the huge health costs attached to pollution.
After years of asking for decisive and consistent government action, the business community convinced government that a major element of economic revival and net zero should be new green technologies - particularly tidal power, in which the UK became the world leader, creating tens of thousands of new jobs and substantial exports of equipment.
Britain finally had a government that understood a fundamental fact of railway economics: that they have high fixed costs, and the only way to defray them is by intensive use.
Fares reform based on single-leg pricing simplified the system, helped by app-based pay-as-you-go ticketing, which had the same effect in boosting public transport use as the Oystercard had in London from 2003.
The low prices offered by Austria’s KlimaTicket proved unaffordable in the UK, but very low fares for children did succeed in growing an already resilient family leisure market.
Public transport information was revolutionised by providing all modes, including car and e-bike hire, on a single app with real-time operating details.
Arguably the greatest single agent of change was a rigorous reform of planning, which put an end to the idiocy of creating car-dependent developments in an age of climate crisis.
By the end of the 2020s, electric or driverless cars were no longer seen as a panacea for individual mobility. Conflict over lithium and other rare materials required for their production, and dominant control of them by China, made them prohibitively expensive.
The Holy Grail of devising safe driverless cars in dense urban environments proved a fantasy. Test beds for driverless cars showed that it was impossible for them to operate safely in an environment that contained pedestrians and cyclists. Average speeds achieved in urban areas were even lower than driven cars, and driverless vehicles were constantly overtaken by e-bikes.
For many people, car clubs replaced car ownership, continuing the trend of young people no longer seeing the car as a status symbol.
Why (they asked) would I spend tens of thousands of pounds on something that, on average, is used for just nine hours a week? Would you invest in a factory that operated for just 5.3% of the week?
Universal education about climate change and sustainable practices helped drive modal shift, as did punitive taxation of SUVs which reversed the illogical trend to larger vehicles. Moreover, the damage done to human health by particulates from tyres and brakes (whatever the source of power) became much better understood.
The consequence was a planning requirement for all new large-scale housing and commercial developments to be either located around rail hubs or served by light rail or electric bus routes.
Transport and land-use planning were firmly integrated after decades of intent and little action. And the long-standing Japanese policy of focusing around stations a range of public services - such as doctors’ and dentists’ surgeries, children’s nurseries and libraries - was adopted, to reinforce the value of public transport hubs.
This was complemented by adopting the Swiss policy of creating multi-mode hubs at stations.
The re-regulation of buses enabled bus routes to be focused on stations, with services timed to dovetail with train times. The Swiss Taktfahrplan of regular interval services every 60, 30 or 15 minutes was adopted (noting the Swiss experience of rail patronage jumping by 129% within four years when Zürich’s S-Bahn was created). E-bike charging points far outnumbered those for cars at stations, and few large stations were without a bike servicing facility.
Stations were enhanced by borrowing another idea from Switzerland: convenience stores which also provided travel information. They became as common as filling station forecourt shops and added a further sense of security at stations. And better place-making in and around stations attracted more people, with some offering cafes and even restaurants that attracted non-rail-users.
Larger stopping points copied the Louvre metro station in Paris and Gloucester Road in London, in creating space for the display of artwork or artefacts from local museums that reflected the history of the area.
The 2022 pioneering family lounge at King’s Cross, complete with Hornby model railway, was followed by others at main stations to cater for the growing numbers of families attracted by fares reform.
For urban areas, people saw the many benefits that followed from greater use of public transport and active travel - cleaner air, and more sociable and welcoming spaces as pedestrianisation was extended. People also recognised the value of active travel and public transport in fostering a sense of community through greater social interaction.
Rail reorganisation
Implementation of the William-Shapps Plan for Rail and the creation of English Railways took much longer than anticipated, thanks to deflected government attention following the debacle of Liz Truss’s few weeks in power.
The change of name from Great British Railways reflected the distinct and more progressive policies that the devolved assemblies in Wales and Scotland had developed, and their desire for separate identities. Scotland retained ScotRail and Wales adopted Welsh Railways (WR) for services within the country.
In England, the ‘guiding mind’ created a framework that allowed regional and local decisions on investment and operations to be taken much more expeditiously. This recognised the desire of Combined Authorities and progressive county councils such as Cornwall and Devon to have greater control over transport.
With the Rail Safety and Standards Board, English Railways (ER) had oversight of industry standards, technology, and train specification and orders, putting an end to the economic and environmental waste of trains barely a decade old being sent for scrap. The art of cascading returned. Most importantly, costs and revenue were brought together within ER, WR and ScotRail.
Private sector involvement was retained, with concession agreements (determined by ER) replacing franchises. The agreements had an escalating incentive for passenger growth, and payments that reflected a range of qualitative standards - some based on Transport Focus research and survey results.
The most contentious issue of the 2020s was HS2. But efforts to halt construction after the Truss financial crisis were roundly rejected, given the need for greater capacity.
This was vindicated by the huge increases in demand, following taxation of aviation fuel and higher air passenger duty (reversing the illogical and unnecessary cut to the latter on domestic flights by Rishi Sunak in 2022).
Following the example of France, it was agreed that internal journeys which could be done by train should not be made by air. HS2’s western arm eventually reached Preston, and political pressure forced the reinstatement of a revised eastern arm as far as Leeds.
Diesel trains were eliminated from 2037, three years ahead of the target of 2040 set in 2018 by Jo Johnson (brother of Boris - remember him?), thanks to an accelerated programme of electrification that provided certainty for rail industry suppliers. Per km wiring costs were reduced to those of Germany (they had been up to four times higher in the first two decades of the century).
Rapid advances in batteries eclipsed hydrogen experiments for trains on secondary lines and the last-mile requirement for electric freight locomotives. Even this was soon rendered unnecessary by the rollout of Furrer+Frey’s retractable catenary.
Although leisure became the main reason for rail journeys, commuting and business travel by train recovered more quickly than many had anticipated. Behind the return of commuters were the rising costs of heating a home office, the value of employees being ‘visible’ to their employers, and our natural gregariousness.
Leisure travel
Introduction of the four-day week in 2032, and greater job-sharing as AI (artificial intelligence) reduced the level of job vacancies, accelerated the growing leisure segment of train journeys.
Even before then, residents of some popular holiday destinations had become so fed up with gridlocked tourist traffic that councils restricted car-borne access to residents and blue-badge holders. Cameras on access roads registered residents’ permits and badges, and sent stiff fines to anyone ignoring the prohibition.
St Ives, with its narrow streets, was one of the first resorts to ban trips by car, and the Cornish town’s pioneering park-and-ride scheme - first at Lelant Saltings and then at St Erth - became a model for other resorts. Small electric luggage taxis, based on those used in car-free Zermatt, meet trains.
Similar rural areas made up of narrow lanes wholly unsuited to holiday traffic, such as many coastal stretches of Devon and Cornwall, created bus links and park-and-ride facilities (wherever feasible) from a railway station.
Some of the congested single-track roads to National Trust beaches, such as Porthcurno and Cape Cornwall, were closed to non-residents and freed up for a frequent Land’s End Coaster bus service from Penzance, building on the excellent work of Transport for Cornwall.
But most challenging of all leisure destinations were the National Parks. Some had become so clogged with traffic, especially on Bank Holiday weekends, that it was recognised that drastic action was needed to preserve the very qualities that people came to enjoy.
The Sandford principle - that where there is conflict between a National Park’s dual functions of conservation and promoting public enjoyment, then greater weight must be given to conservation - had been enshrined in the 1995 Environment Act.
National Park authorities consequently limited car access to residents, people staying overnight, and those with a blue badge - using similar hardware to resorts to enforce the regulations.
Predictably, there were howls of protest from the motoring lobby, who saw this as an outrageous infringement of the freedom to drive wherever and whenever they wanted.
But gradually their voices were drowned by people delighted at the new sense of peace that the parks offered - as well as the stimulus to more exercise, improving wellbeing and helping to reduce levels of obesity, which had been projected to cost the NHS £9.7 billion annually by 2050 (and £50bn a year in the wider costs to society).
In the Lake District, the line to Keswick was reopened with some new stretches of track. A network of frequent bus links was created from station hubs at Penrith, Windermere, Keswick, Grange-over-Sands, Ulverston, Foxfield and Ravenglass, designed to meet the needs of walkers as well as those visiting attractions such as Beatrix Potter’s Hilltop, Dove Cottage, and Rydal Mount.
The North Yorkshire Moors had been transformed by the reopening of the Malton-Pickering line, to allow much easier access to the park from the south rather than having to travel via Middlesbrough and the Esk Valley.
Again, bus hubs were established at Middlesbrough, Whitby, Thirsk and Pickering, with bike hire at some stations on the Esk Valley and North Yorkshire Moors Railway.
Train design
The early 21st century priority of maximising seating capacity disappeared, as the reasons for travel were irreversibly changed by the pandemic. Airline seating was reduced in favour of more tables, compartments for families, and on some inter-city routes a family carriage with play area.
Seats were given extensive consumer tests before the design was finalised, and design competitions helped add flair to the overall interior design.
For a few scenic routes with outstanding landscapes and for steam-hauled excursions, the RSSB accepted an idea based on the observation cars of KiwiRail Scenic Trains in New Zealand. These vehicles, with open upper sides, became popular with photographers and those who enjoyed a wind-in-the-hair experience.
Freight is great
The song title from Starlight Express became reality by a tripling of rail freight tonne/km.
Besides an extension of the Mode Shift Revenue Support scheme and higher lorry taxes to level the playing field, land value capture funds were applied to build new terminals and private sidings.
Train lengths rose from 775 metres to 900 metres, improving productivity. Equally important was Getlink’s moderation of charges for nocturnal freight trains, allowing Channel Tunnel tonnage to far exceed the ten million mark envisaged in original plans.
Planning reform again helped. The Location of Industry Act made sure that the folly of building factories such as Toyota’s at Burnaston or Nissan’s at Sunderland without a rail connection would not be repeated.
Equally, planning permission for National and Regional Distribution Centres was granted only for those with sufficient rail facilities to move half the projected volume of goods and a commitment to use them.
Reopenings
Although money from the Treasury was hard won throughout the 2020s, funding for new stations and line reopenings came from a combination of refining the process of land value capture and better modelling of ways to achieve local authority plans.
The former resulted in up to 50% of the increase in land value and rental incomes as a result of rail investments being contributed to projects. Typically, this encompassed property within a radius of 1km-2km from stations.
More sophisticated modelling of scheme benefits enabled local authorities to take into account a wider range of outcomes from better accessibility, in turn unlocking purse strings as a result of monetising the economic, social and environmental benefits of the railway.
Community Rail Partnerships played a key role in building ridership and developing the social benefits of reopening, as they had on countless other lines. Station garden competitions were revived.
Some of the lines in the Campaign for Better Transport’s The case for expanding the rail network report have been reopened, almost invariably far exceeding their forecast passenger numbers - as had been the case with the few reopenings in the 2000s and 2010s.
Wisbech, Skipton-Colne (at last!), Coalville, Haverhill, Fleetwood, Caernarfon and Hawick were among the places again enjoying a train service.
All small recognitions that, as the Prime Minister of Barbados put it at COP27 in 2022, “the things that are facing us today are all inter-connected”.
